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Last Updated: 2026-08-07 15:37 UTC
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Color Rule: Red text = bad current value, bad trend, missing critical data, or unfavorable gap. Green text = favorable value or improving trend. Amber text = context-dependent, incomplete, pending, or source-method review needed. Neutral/gray text = descriptive value that is not inherently good or bad.
Evidence Table Types: Actual = a value published as-is by the cited source. Historical = a real data point shown for context only, not fully comparable to the row's main series (different question, methodology, or period). Projection = a future-year row -- this project's own target/glidepath math, an independently published forecast, or both; check the Source column for which applies. (This legend is a Healthcare-specific addition -- NDD's own data doesn't currently use a Historical row_type, so its real detail-page shell, if one is ever found, may not need this paragraph at all.)
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NDD-REQ-001 Requirement: The federal debt held by the public as percent of GDP shall decline from 100.6% in 2026 to 78.1% in 2036, smoothed as a gradual ease-in rather than moving immediately to the full average pace, thereby eliminating the abrupt first-year discontinuity while deliberately backloading much of the adjustment into the final five years (see Feasibility). Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: Historical U.S. precedent: debt held by the public fell from 47.1% of GDP in 1994 to 31.4% in 2001 (FRED FYPUGDA188S), a decline of 2.25 percentage points per year. This glidepath adopts that verified pace, smoothed as a quadratic ease-in so no single year carries the abrupt jump an earlier, unsmoothed version had -- though the smoothing is itself backloaded: about 25% of the total decline occurs in 2027-2031, about 75% in 2032-2036. Discussion: Quadratic ease-in: decline(year) = -22.5 * ((year-2026)/10)^2. Benefits If Met: Easing into the 1994-2001 debt-reduction pace instead of adopting it all at once brings debt down to 78.1% of GDP by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 120.2% under the current baseline -- a swing that substantially reduces interest costs relative to CBO's baseline, leaving about $680 billion more annual fiscal capacity by 2036 (NDD-MET-012), even though interest's own share of the budget initially rises before flattening and declining. If Not Met: Staying on the current path pushes debt to 120.2% of GDP by 2036, well past the post-WWII record of 106% (1946). |
NDD-MET-001: Federal debt held by the public as percent of GDP Current Value: 98.1% (2025) Trend: +1.8 pp Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-002 Requirement: The gross federal debt as percent of GDP shall decline from 123.6% in 2026 to 88.6% in 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This metric moves somewhat differently from NDD-MET-001 (debt held by the public) because of how intragovernmental debt behaves. Intragovernmental debt -- mainly Social Security, Medicare, and federal retirement trust fund holdings -- currently makes up about 19-20% of gross federal debt. CBO projects that share will shrink as the Social Security trust funds draw down: CBO's own February 2026 testimony projects the OASI trust fund alone exhausted in fiscal year 2032, and the combined OASDI trust funds (OASI plus Disability Insurance) exhausted in 2033 (corrected 2026-07-11 after external review; CBO). Each dollar of trust fund securities redeemed converts one-for-one into new debt held by the public, so gross debt and debt held by the public are on a path to substantially converge over the next decade under current law. That said, this convergence is not immutable: Congress could change payroll tax rates, benefit formulas, transfers, or trust-fund rules at any time, which would alter the pace (corrected 2026-07-11 -- an earlier version of this text overstated this as something no legislation could touch). The broader levers that would actually bend this metric's trajectory -- sustained primary surpluses, faster growth relative to interest rates, and political consensus to sustain either -- are the same ones covered in NDD-MET-001's Feasibility, and the same historical and international precedents and caveats apply here. This row's target scales NDD-MET-001's glidepath by the same ratio each year rather than re-deriving a separate pace, since both series describe closely related debt trajectories. Discussion: 123.6% Benefits If Met: Following the same smoothed, gradually-accelerating pace as the debt-held-by-the-public glidepath brings gross federal debt down to 88.6% of GDP by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 136.4% under the current baseline. If Not Met: Left unchecked, gross federal debt (debt held by the public plus what the government owes its own trust funds) reaches 136.4% of GDP by 2036, roughly 48 percentage points above this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-002: Gross federal debt as percent of GDP Current Value: 121.5% (2025) Trend: +1.2 pp Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-003 Requirement: The total public debt outstanding shall rise from $39.43 trillion in 2026 to a peak near $42.73 trillion around 2033, then decline to $41.38 trillion by 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath; because the pace of %GDP decline eventually outpaces GDP growth itself, the dollar figure turns downward in the final years -- not just relative to the economy, but in absolute terms. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: Total public debt outstanding (debt held by the public plus intragovernmental holdings, per this row's own Formula field) is essentially the same quantity as NDD-MET-002's gross federal debt, so this row's Feasibility content is the same: see NDD-MET-001 for the historical/international precedent behind the pace, and NDD-MET-002 for why gross-style debt measures move somewhat differently than debt held by the public alone (intragovernmental debt, mainly Social Security and Medicare trust funds, is on its own path toward roughly 2033 exhaustion, which mechanically shrinks the gap between the two debt measures regardless of budget policy). This row's target scales NDD-MET-001's glidepath by the same ratio each year rather than re-deriving a separate pace. Discussion: Stretch goal: rise from $39.43 T (2026) to a peak near $42.73 T (around 2033), then decline to $41.38 T (2036), scaled at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath -- the dollar figure eventually turns downward as the %GDP decline rate outpaces GDP growth. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Holding total public debt outstanding to a peak of about $42.7 trillion around 2033, then an actual decline in the final years, instead of the $63.69 trillion CBO's baseline projects for 2036, means debt not only grows far more slowly than the economy -- for the last several years, it stops growing in dollar terms altogether. If Not Met: Left unchecked, total public debt outstanding grows to $63.69 trillion by 2036 -- about $22 trillion more than this glidepath's endpoint, and still climbing, unlike this glidepath's declining final years. |
NDD-MET-003: Total public debt outstanding Current Value: $37.64 trillion (2025-09-30) Trend: +$2.17 trillion (+6.10%) since 2024-09-30 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-004 Requirement: The debt held by the public (nominal dollars) shall rise from $32.10 trillion in 2026 to a peak near $37.43 trillion around 2033, then decline to $36.48 trillion by 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath; because the pace of %GDP decline eventually outpaces GDP growth itself, the dollar figure turns downward in the final years. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This row is the dollar-denominated version of NDD-MET-001 (debt held by the public as % of GDP) -- the same underlying debt, different units. See NDD-MET-001's Feasibility for the historical/international precedent (the 1994-2001 U.S. episode) behind the pace and its caveats. This row's target is not independently derived; it applies NDD-MET-001's %GDP glidepath to actual CBO GDP projections to get the corresponding dollar figures. Discussion: Stretch goal: rise from $32.10 T (2026) to a peak near $37.43 T (around 2033), then decline to $36.48 T (2036), scaled at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Holding debt held by the public to a peak of about $37.4 trillion around 2033, then an actual decline in the final years, instead of the $56.15 trillion CBO's baseline projects for 2036, means debt not only grows far more slowly than the economy -- for the last several years, it stops growing in dollar terms altogether. If Not Met: Left unchecked, debt held by the public nearly doubles to $56.15 trillion by 2036 -- about $20 trillion more than this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-004: Debt held by the public (nominal dollars) Current Value: $30.298 trillion (2025-09-30) Trend: +$1.973 trillion (+6.96%) since 2024-09-30 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-005 Requirement: The annual federal deficit shall end lower than its 2026 level, declining from $1.85 T in 2026 to -$0.53 T in 2036, easing in smoothly rather than dropping sharply in a single year, with the receipts side of this path assuming revenue reaches 21.68% of GDP by 2036 (see NDD-MET-009) and the spending side assuming mandatory spending stays at or above its hard floor (see NDD-MET-017-USD). Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is the deficit path arithmetically required to produce NDD-MET-001's debt trajectory. The receipts/spending mix used to reach it is modeled on the actual 1994-2001 U.S. episode: revenue rising to 21.68% of GDP by 2036 (see NDD-MET-009), and mandatory spending held to a hard floor (see NDD-MET-017 and NDD-MET-017-USD) with discretionary spending absorbing the resulting transition. Discussion: Debt(t+1) = Debt(t) + Deficit(t) + Other Means of Financing(t), using this row's positive-when-deficit convention. Benefits If Met: Following the smoothed deficit path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath brings the budget to -$0.53 T by 2036 -- instead of a projected $3.12 T deficit under the current baseline. If Not Met: Left unchecked, the annual deficit grows to $3.12 T by 2036. |
NDD-MET-005: Annual federal deficit (nominal dollars) Current Value: $1,774.7 billion (2025) Trend: Deficit improved by $40.7 billion from FY2024 to FY2025 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-006 Requirement: The federal deficit as percent of GDP shall decline from 5.81% in 2026 to a 1.14% surplus in 2036, easing in smoothly (matching NDD-MET-001's smoothed glidepath) and turning into an outright budget surplus around 2035 -- larger than the 1998 surplus (0.78% of GDP) but smaller than the surpluses recorded in 1999-2001 (1.33%, 2.34%, and 1.22% of GDP). Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is the %GDP version of NDD-MET-005's deficit path, not independently derived. See NDD-MET-005 for the receipts/spending mix (modeled on the actual 1994-2001 U.S. episode) and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying pace and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: decline from 5.81% (2026) to a 1.14% surplus (2036), following NDD-MET-001's smoothed ease-in glidepath (see Feasibility for the receipts/spending mix assumed). Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Following the smoothed deficit path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath brings the budget to a 1.14%-of-GDP surplus by 2036 -- not just a smaller deficit, but more revenue than total spending -- instead of a projected 6.67% deficit under the current baseline. The U.S. last ran total surpluses in each of fiscal years 1998-2001 (0.78%, 1.33%, 2.34%, and 1.22% of GDP); this target's 2036 surplus is larger than 1998's but smaller than 1999-2001's, including the 2000 peak. If Not Met: Left unchecked, the deficit grows to 6.67% of GDP by 2036 -- nearly double the 50-year average of 3.8%, and about 7.8 points above this glidepath's endpoint, which reaches a surplus rather than merely a smaller deficit. |
NDD-MET-006: Federal deficit as percent of GDP Current Value: +5.85% (2025) Trend: Deficit improved by 0.42 PP from 2024 to 2025 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-007 Requirement: The primary deficit shall improve from $0.81 trillion in 2026 to -$1.98 trillion (a primary surplus) in 2036 -- reaching primary surplus around 2028 and approaching the peak magnitude the United States achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP) by the final years, while requiring large primary surpluses to be sustained much longer than in 1998-2001. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is not independently chosen -- it is the primary-balance path required to produce NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt trajectory once net interest (NDD-MET-012) is subtracted from the total deficit (NDD-MET-005): Primary Deficit = Total Deficit - Net Interest, using this row's positive-when-deficit sign convention throughout. It requires a primary surplus from about 2028 onward. Because NDD-MET-001 now eases into its pace gradually (smoothed 2026-07-11 at the user's request) rather than adopting the full pace at once, this row's final-year ask ($1.98T, 4.23% of GDP) is close to, but slightly below, the actual U.S. primary surplus peak of about 4.54% of GDP reached in 2000 (corrected 2026-07-12 to use CBO's internally consistent fiscal-year figures throughout -- total surplus 2.335% of GDP plus net interest 2.204% of GDP -- after external review found the previous 4.48% figure mixed a fiscal-year total-surplus figure with a calendar-year net-interest figure, the same class of period mismatch corrected elsewhere in this file for NDD-MET-008; corrected 2026-07-11 after an earlier external review found this row had previously and incorrectly claimed the target exceeded the historical peak, based on a mistaken figure of roughly 1% of GDP for the 1998-2001 era). The more demanding feature of this target is not its peak size but sustaining large primary surpluses for many consecutive years, unlike the historical episode. The receipts/spending mix used to reach this is modeled on that same era's tools: revenue rising toward a pace matching the actual 1994-2000 U.S. revenue recovery (NDD-MET-009), mandatory spending held to a hard floor that applies through 2036 and never falls below its 2026 dollar level, with the freeze itself lasting only through 2029 before growth resumes under that floor (NDD-MET-016/017), and discretionary spending absorbing the resulting transition, now a much milder reduction than before (NDD-MET-018/019). See NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: improve from $0.81 T (2026) to -$1.98 T primary surplus (2036), following NDD-MET-001's smoothed ease-in glidepath (see Feasibility for the receipts/spending mix assumed). Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Following the smoothed primary-balance path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath means non-interest spending falls below revenue starting around 2028, reaching a primary surplus of about $1.98 trillion (4.23% of GDP) by 2036 -- close to, but slightly below, the peak primary surplus the U.S. actually achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP, verified using CBO's fiscal-year historical data); the more demanding feature of this target is sustaining large primary surpluses for many consecutive years, not exceeding the peak size of any single year. If Not Met: Left unchecked, the primary deficit grows to $0.97 trillion by 2036, even before counting the cost of interest on existing debt -- nearly $3 trillion worse than this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-007: Primary deficit or surplus - nominal dollars Current Value: Primary deficit $805.4 billion (2025) Trend: -$145.7 billion vs 2024 (a smaller deficit -- an improvement) Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-008 Requirement: The primary deficit as percent of GDP shall improve from 2.55% in 2026 to -4.23% (a primary surplus) in 2036 -- reaching primary surplus around 2028 and approaching the peak magnitude the United States achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP) by the final years, while requiring large primary surpluses to be sustained much longer than in 1998-2001. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is the %GDP version of NDD-MET-007's smoothed primary-balance path, not independently derived. It requires a primary surplus from about 2028 onward, growing to 4.23% of GDP by 2036 -- close to, but slightly below, the actual U.S. primary surplus peak of about 4.54% of GDP reached in 2000 (corrected 2026-07-12 to use CBO's internally consistent fiscal-year figures throughout -- total surplus 2.335% of GDP plus net interest 2.204% of GDP -- after external review found the previous 4.48% figure mixed a fiscal-year total-surplus figure with a calendar-year net-interest figure, the same class of period mismatch corrected elsewhere in this file for NDD-MET-008). See NDD-MET-007 for the receipts/spending mix assumed and NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: improve from 2.55% (2026) to -4.23% primary surplus (2036), the %GDP version of NDD-MET-007's smoothed primary-balance path. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Following the smoothed primary-balance path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath means non-interest spending falls below revenue starting around 2028, reaching a primary surplus of about 4.2% of GDP by 2036 -- close to, but slightly below, the peak primary surplus the U.S. actually achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP, verified using CBO's fiscal-year historical data); the more demanding feature of this target is sustaining large primary surpluses for many consecutive years, not exceeding the peak size of any single year. If Not Met: New tax cuts or spending increases beyond current law could easily erase the modest improvement CBO already projects, and staying on the current baseline leaves the primary deficit around 2.1% of GDP in 2036 instead of this glidepath's roughly 4.2%-of-GDP surplus -- a swing of more than 6.3 percentage points. |
NDD-MET-008: Primary deficit or surplus as percent of GDP Current Value: +2.65% (2025) Trend: -0.63 PP vs 2024 (a smaller deficit -- an improvement) Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-009 Requirement: Federal receipts as percent of GDP shall end higher than its 2026 starting point, rising from 17.54% in 2026 to 21.68% in 2036, at the pace the U.S. actually achieved from 1994 to 2000. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: Federal receipts rose from 17.27% of GDP in 1994 to 19.76% in 2000 (FRED FYFRGDA188S). This row applies that same verified 6-year rate over a 10-year window, reaching 21.68% by 2036 -- above the actual 1990s peak, and this row's own extrapolation beyond precedent, not a level the U.S. has previously sustained. Discussion: Linear: 17.54% + 0.414pp/year, applied for 10 years instead of the historical 6. Benefits If Met: Growing receipts at the same pace the economy actually achieved from 1994-2000 brings receipts to 21.68% of GDP by 2036, supplying most of what NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath requires alongside spending discipline. If Not Met: Receipts merely tracking CBO's current baseline (17.77% of GDP by 2036) leaves a gap that would otherwise have to come entirely from spending cuts or additional borrowing. |
NDD-MET-009: Federal receipts as percent of GDP Current Value: 17.0% (2025) Trend: +0.23 PP Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-010 Requirement: Federal net outlays as percent of GDP shall decline steadily from 23.35% in 2026 to 20.55% in 2036 -- the outlay level consistent with NDD-MET-009's receipts path and NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath, after accounting for lower-than-baseline interest costs on a shrinking debt. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is not independently chosen -- it equals NDD-MET-009's receipts target plus NDD-MET-005's deficit target for each year, so it is arithmetically consistent with both. The near-term decline is driven mainly by discretionary spending absorbing a real, temporary reduction (see NDD-MET-018/019) to protect mandatory spending's hard dollar floor (NDD-MET-016/017, which never falls below its 2026 level), plus interest costs that remain below baseline and eventually flatten and decline (NDD-MET-012) as debt shrinks -- interest costs actually rise for most of the decade in dollar terms, turning downward only in the final year. See NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: decline steadily from 23.35% (2026) to 20.55% (2036), the outlay level implied by NDD-MET-009's receipts path and NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Outlays declining steadily from 23.35% to 20.55% of GDP over the decade -- a smooth, gradual decline rather than a sharp near-term dip and recovery -- reflects both a much milder discretionary-spending adjustment (NDD-MET-018/019) and interest costs that remain below baseline and eventually flatten and decline (NDD-MET-012) as debt shrinks. If Not Met: Left unchecked, net outlays grow to 24.44% of GDP by 2036, exceeding their 50-year average of 21.2% by an even wider margin than today, and about 3.9 points above this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-010: Federal net outlays as percent of GDP Current Value: 22.8% (2025) Trend: -0.20 PP Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-011 Requirement: The federal spending-to-revenue ratio shall decline from 133.11% in 2026 to 94.76% in 2036 -- the ratio implied by NDD-MET-010's outlay path divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts path, both already tied to NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath. By 2036 the government collects slightly more than it spends. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is not independently chosen -- it is NDD-MET-010's outlay target divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts target for each year, so it is arithmetically consistent with both by construction. See NDD-MET-009 for the revenue assumption (paced on the actual 1994-2000 U.S. revenue recovery) and NDD-MET-010 for the outlay assumption, and NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: decline from 133.11% (2026) to 94.76% (2036), equal to NDD-MET-010 divided by NDD-MET-009 for each year. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Following the outlay and receipts paths that produce NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath brings spending below revenue by 2036 -- the government would collect about 5 cents more than it spends for every dollar, down from spending $1.34 for every dollar collected today. If Not Met: Left unchecked, the government spends $1.38 for every dollar it collects by 2036, up from $1.33 today -- about 43 cents on the dollar more than this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-011: Federal spending-to-revenue ratio Current Value: 133.9% (2025) Trend: -3.01 PP vs 2024 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-012 Requirement: Net interest outlays shall grow from $1.04 T in 2026 to a peak near $1.47 T around 2035, then decline to $1.46 T by 2036 -- interest costs stop growing altogether in the final year, since debt (NDD-MET-001) is by then shrinking fast enough to outweigh CBO's exact assumed interest rates. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: Applies CBO's own projected average interest rate (3.404% to 3.939%, exact rates from CBO's published rate table) to the prior year-end value of NDD-MET-001's declining debt stock, with 2026 itself anchored directly to CBO's own baseline net interest. All of the improvement comes from carrying less debt, not from borrowing more cheaply. Discussion: rate(t) x Debt(t-1), beginning-of-year convention; 2026 anchored to CBO baseline directly. Benefits If Met: Interest costs grow for most of this path -- there's no way around paying interest on existing debt while debt is still historically high -- but by around 2035 the shrinking debt stock outweighs even CBO's own assumption of rising rates. Reaching $1.46 T by 2036 instead of a projected $2.14 T leaves nearly $680 billion a year more for other priorities. If Not Met: Left unchecked, net interest costs more than double to $2.14 T by 2036, becoming one of the largest single items in the federal budget. |
NDD-MET-012: Net interest outlays - nominal dollars Current Value: $970 billion (2025) Trend: $90.2 billion (+10.2%) Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-013 Requirement: Federal interest outlays as percent of GDP shall rise to a peak near 3.53% around 2031-2032, then decline to 3.13% by 2036 -- net lower than the 3.26% starting point, once debt (NDD-MET-001) shrinks enough to outweigh CBO's exact assumed interest rates (imported 2026-07-11). Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is the %GDP version of NDD-MET-012's interest-cost path, not independently derived. Because it uses CBO's own assumed interest rates applied to a smaller debt stock, interest costs as a share of GDP peak around 2032 and then decline -- a smaller debt stock eventually outweighs CBO's own assumption of rising rates (corrected 2026-07-11: this note previously said '2030-2031,' which had not been updated when the peak shifted during the smoothing pass in entry 53). See NDD-MET-012 for the rate assumptions and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: rise from 3.26% (2026) to a peak near 3.53% (around 2031-2032), then decline to 3.13% by 2036 -- net lower than the starting point -- the %GDP version of NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Because a smaller debt stock eventually outweighs CBO's own assumption of rising interest rates, interest costs as a share of the economy peak near 3.53% around 2031-2032 and then decline, ending at 3.13% of GDP in 2036 -- net lower than today -- instead of climbing to a projected 4.59%. If Not Met: Left unchecked, interest costs grow to 4.59% of GDP by 2036 -- their highest recorded level in at least 85 years, and about 1.5 percentage points above this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-013: Federal interest outlays as percent of GDP Current Value: 3.15% (2025) Trend: +0.15 PP Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-014 Requirement: Net interest outlays as percent of federal receipts shall decline from 18.6% in 2026 to 14.4% in 2036 -- the ratio implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts path. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is not independently chosen -- it is NDD-MET-012's interest-cost target divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts target for each year. See NDD-MET-012 for the interest-rate assumptions, NDD-MET-009 for the revenue assumption, and NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: decline from 18.6% (2026) to 14.4% (2036), equal to NDD-MET-012 divided by NDD-MET-009 for each year. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: With interest costs peaking and then flattening (NDD-MET-012) while receipts keep growing (NDD-MET-009), interest's share of every tax dollar collected falls from about 18.6 cents to about 14.4 cents by 2036, instead of rising to a projected 25.8 cents. If Not Met: Left unchecked, more than a quarter of every tax dollar collected (25.8%) goes to interest payments by 2036, instead of public priorities -- about 11.4 points above this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-014: Net interest outlays as percent of federal receipts Current Value: 18.5% (2025) Trend: +0.64 PP Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-015 Requirement: Net interest as percent of federal outlays shall peak near 16.7% around 2032 and decline to 15.2% by 2036 -- the ratio implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path divided by NDD-MET-010's outlay path. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is not independently chosen -- it is NDD-MET-012's interest-cost target divided by NDD-MET-010's outlay target for each year. See NDD-MET-012 for the interest-rate assumptions, NDD-MET-010 for the outlay assumption, and NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: peak near 16.7% around 2032, then decline to 15.2% by 2036, equal to NDD-MET-012 divided by NDD-MET-010 for each year. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Interest's share of the budget rises for several years (spending has to fall further before the smaller debt stock catches up), peaking near 16.7% around 2032, then declines to 15.2% by 2036 -- above where it started but well below the baseline's trajectory -- instead of climbing to a projected 18.8%. If Not Met: Left unchecked, interest costs grow to nearly one-fifth of all federal spending (18.8%) by 2036 -- about 3.6 points above this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-015: Net interest share of federal outlays Current Value: 13.8% (2025) Trend: +0.77 PP vs 2024 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-016 Requirement: Mandatory spending shall never fall below its 2026 dollar level in any year through 2036 (see NDD-MET-017-USD for the dollar path) -- a hard floor, not a target for this row's percentage itself. As a share of federal outlays, that floor means the percentage rises to about 62.0% by 2027 (as discretionary spending, not mandatory, absorbs the near-term budget tightening) before settling near 61.4% by 2036. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This row's real target is NDD-MET-017-USD (mandatory spending in dollar terms), held to a hard floor that never falls below its 2026 level -- explicitly not cut to help close the debt gap, consistent with protecting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid beneficiaries. This row (the % of outlays) is a mechanical byproduct of dividing that floored dollar path by total outlays: since discretionary spending (NDD-MET-018/019) absorbs most of the near-term budget tightening instead of mandatory spending, mandatory's percentage of the (smaller) total temporarily rises. See NDD-MET-005 for how the full receipts/spending mix was allocated and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying pace. Discussion: Hard floor (not a percentage target): mandatory spending in dollar terms never falls below its 2026 level (see NDD-MET-017). As a % of outlays that implies roughly 62.0% (2027) settling to about 61.4% (2036), a byproduct of discretionary spending (NDD-MET-018) absorbing the transition, not of mandatory's own share being targeted. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: The protection in this scenario is a hard dollar floor: mandatory spending -- Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlement programs -- never falls below its 2026 level in any year (see NDD-MET-017-USD), even as the rest of the budget tightens. With the smoothed glidepath, this row's percentage moves only modestly (62.0% to 61.4%), since discretionary spending (NDD-MET-018/019) absorbs a much milder adjustment than under the original unsmoothed version. If Not Met: If mandatory spending were instead allowed to flex downward to help close the debt gap, an earlier version of this scenario showed it would need to fall by roughly $930 billion in a single year (2027) relative to its 2026 level -- a real cut to entitlement spending, which this row's hard floor is specifically designed to prevent. |
NDD-MET-016: Mandatory spending as percent of federal outlays Current Value: 59.5% (2025) Trend: -0.7 PP vs 2024; -10.4 PP vs 2020 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-017 Requirement: Mandatory spending shall never fall below $4,529 B (its 2026 dollar level, see NDD-MET-017-USD) in any year through 2036. As percent of GDP, that floor means this metric dips to about 12.5% around 2030, then ends lower than its 2026 starting value of 14.2%, at 12.6% by 2036 -- staying below today's level throughout. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: Mandatory spending is held to a hard dollar floor (see NDD-MET-017-USD) through 2036; the freeze itself lasts only through 2029 before growth resumes under that floor. As %GDP, this mechanically dips before rising as the frozen dollar amount shrinks relative to a growing economy, then GDP growth outpaces the resumed spending growth. Discussion: NDD-MET-017-USD divided by GDP. Benefits If Met: Mandatory spending -- Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlement programs -- is held to a hard dollar floor that never declines (see NDD-MET-017-USD for the dollar path). A multi-year freeze is still a real, difficult ask, but it is categorically different from a cut below current spending. If Not Met: Left unchecked, mandatory spending grows to 15.0% of GDP ($7,028 B) by 2036 under the CBO baseline. |
NDD-MET-017: Mandatory spending as percent of GDP Current Value: 13.7% (2025) Trend: -0.3 PP vs 2024; -7.7 PP vs 2020 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-018 Requirement: Discretionary spending absorbs the transition needed to protect NDD-MET-017-USD's mandatory-spending floor: it falls from $1.88 trillion (2026) to about $1.68 trillion (2027) -- a real but now much milder cut of roughly 10%, versus the roughly 46% cut the original unsmoothed version required -- before recovering to approximately its own CBO-baseline dollar level by 2030. Because total target outlays are lower than CBO's baseline outlays, discretionary spending remains a larger share of target outlays than its own baseline share from 2030 onward, even at the same dollar level. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This row carries the real, honest cost of protecting mandatory spending's floor (NDD-MET-016/017) on an aggressive debt glidepath: a temporary but now much milder cut to defense, infrastructure, research, and other discretionary priorities, deepest in 2027 (roughly a 10% reduction from 2026, versus 46% under the original unsmoothed glidepath) and fully recovered to CBO's own baseline by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace (2026-07-11, at the user's request) meaningfully softened this row's near-term cost, which was previously the most severe tradeoff in this scenario. See NDD-MET-005 for how the full receipts/spending mix was allocated and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace. Discussion: Falls to about $1.68 T (2027, roughly a 10% cut from 2026 -- much milder than the original unsmoothed version's 46% cut) to protect NDD-MET-017's mandatory-spending floor, then recovers to approximately CBO's own baseline dollar level by 2030. Because total target outlays (NDD-MET-010) are lower than CBO's own baseline outlays, discretionary spending remains a larger share of target outlays than its baseline share throughout 2030-2036 (e.g. about 24.9% vs. a baseline of about 22.6% in 2030; about 23.4% vs. about 19.7% in 2036) -- corrected 2026-07-11 after external review found this row previously conflated 'recovers in dollar terms' with 'tracks the baseline percentage,' which do not both hold once the two rows' denominators diverge. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Protecting mandatory spending's dollar floor (NDD-MET-016/017) requires discretionary spending -- defense, infrastructure, research, and other essential public functions -- to absorb a real but now mild cut: down to about $1.68 trillion in 2027 (about 10% below 2026, versus 46% under the original unsmoothed glidepath), recovering to its own CBO-baseline level by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace made this the biggest single improvement in this scenario's near-term cost. If Not Met: Under the CBO baseline, discretionary spending's share shrinks gradually to 19.7% by 2036 without any sharp near-term cut -- the difference is that this glidepath's (now mild) transition is compressed into 2027-2029, rather than spread smoothly across the decade as the baseline is. |
NDD-MET-018: Discretionary spending as percent of federal outlays Current Value: 26.7% (2025) Trend: -0.1 PP vs 2024; +1.9 PP vs 2020 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-019 Requirement: Discretionary spending as percent of GDP absorbs the transition needed to protect NDD-MET-017-USD's mandatory-spending floor: it falls from 5.89% (2026) to about 5.1% (2027) -- a real but now mild reduction, versus the roughly 3.0% low point the original unsmoothed version required -- before recovering to its own CBO-baseline level by 2030 and tracking it through 2036 (4.8%). Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This row carries the real, honest cost of protecting mandatory spending's floor (NDD-MET-016/017) on an aggressive debt glidepath: a temporary but now mild reduction to defense, infrastructure, research, and other discretionary priorities, deepest in 2027 (about 5.1% of GDP, versus the roughly 3.0% low point the original unsmoothed glidepath required) and fully recovered to CBO's own baseline by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace (2026-07-11, at the user's request) meaningfully softened this row's near-term cost, which was previously the most severe tradeoff in this scenario. See NDD-MET-005 for how the full receipts/spending mix was allocated and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace. Discussion: Falls to about 5.1% (2027) to protect NDD-MET-017's mandatory-spending floor -- a much milder dip than the original unsmoothed version's 3.0% low point -- then recovers to CBO's own baseline level by 2030 and tracks it through 2036 (4.8%). Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Protecting mandatory spending's dollar floor (NDD-MET-016/017) requires discretionary spending -- national defense, public safety, infrastructure, research, and other essential public functions -- to absorb a real but now mild reduction, to about 5.1% of GDP in 2027, recovering to CBO's own baseline level by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace made this the biggest single improvement in this scenario's near-term cost. If Not Met: If mandatory spending were flexed downward instead to protect discretionary spending, an earlier version of this scenario showed mandatory spending would need to fall by roughly $930 billion in a single year (2027) -- a real cut to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which this row's design specifically avoids by asking discretionary spending to absorb the adjustment instead. |
NDD-MET-019: Discretionary spending as percent of GDP Current Value: 6.2% (2025) Trend: -0.1 PP vs 2024; -1.5 PP vs 2020 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-020 Requirement: Annual growth in federal interest outlays shall decline from +7.12% in 2026 to -0.32% in 2036 -- interest costs stop growing and start shrinking in the final year -- the growth-rate path implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost trajectory. Assoc V2 Req: NDD-MET-020; NDD-PER-006 Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This target is the growth-rate version of NDD-MET-012's interest-cost path, not independently derived. See NDD-MET-012 for the interest-rate assumptions and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: decline from +7.12% (2026) to -0.32% (2036) -- interest costs shrink in the final year -- the year-over-year growth rate implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Following NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path, growth in interest costs slows unevenly but persistently -- dipping and rising through the high-single digits in the late 2020s and early 2030s, then falling sharply -- until it turns negative in 2036, meaning interest costs actually shrink in dollar terms for the first time in this glidepath. If Not Met: Left unchecked, interest-cost growth settles around 6.20% a year by 2036 under the CBO baseline -- still growing, unlike this glidepath's endpoint, where interest costs are actually declining. |
NDD-MET-020: Annual percent change in federal interest outlays Current Value: +10.25% (2025) Trend: -23.42 PP vs 2024 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-021 Requirement: Federal debt held by the public per person shall rise from $93,350 in 2026 to a peak near $105,461 around 2032, then ease down to about $101,402 by 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath -- using a single population concept (FRED POPTHM) consistently across actual, baseline, and target figures. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This row divides NDD-MET-004's dollar debt trajectory by U.S. population (POPTHM concept, extrapolated using a fixed annual increase for projection years), so it moves for two reasons: the debt paydown pace (see NDD-MET-001's Feasibility for the historical precedent) and population increase (a fixed annual amount for projection years, not a percentage growth rate) diluting the per-person figure. See NDD-MET-001 for the historical/international precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: rise from $93,350 (2026) to a peak near $105,461 (around 2032), then ease to about $101,402 (2036), scaled at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath, using the same extrapolated-POPTHM population denominator as the baseline column. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Following the same relative pace as the debt-held-by-the-public glidepath keeps debt per person from climbing much past the 2026 starting value of $93,350, instead of reaching a projected $156,084 per person by 2036 under the current baseline. If Not Met: Left unchecked, debt held by the public grows to $156,084 per person by 2036 under the current baseline, up from $88,520 in 2025 -- about $54,682 more per person than this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-021: Federal debt held by the public per person Current Value: $88,520 per person (2025) Trend: +$5,377 vs 2024 Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-022 Requirement: Federal debt held by the public as percent of federal receipts shall decline from 573.5% in 2026 to 360.2% in 2036, computed consistently as NDD-MET-001's target debt divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts for each year (not CBO's baseline receipts), so this row stays integrated with the rest of the scenario. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This row is now computed as NDD-MET-001's target debt (%GDP) divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts (%GDP) for each year, so it is fully consistent with the rest of this integrated scenario -- previously it divided target debt by CBO's baseline receipts, which quietly broke that consistency (corrected 2026-07-11 after external review). It improves for two combined reasons: debt growth slows (see NDD-MET-001's Feasibility for the historical precedent) and receipts grow faster than CBO's own baseline (see NDD-MET-009's Feasibility for the 1994-2000 pace this assumes). See NDD-MET-001 for the historical/international precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats. Discussion: Stretch goal: decline from 573.5% (2026) to 360.2% (2036), computed as NDD-MET-001's target debt divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts for each year -- corrected 2026-07-11 after external review found the prior version divided target debt by CBO's baseline receipts instead, breaking consistency with the rest of the scenario. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Following NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath and NDD-MET-009's receipts path together (debt divided by receipts, both already part of this scenario) brings debt down to 360.2% of annual receipts by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 676.5% under the current baseline. If Not Met: Left unchecked, debt held by the public grows to nearly 6.8 times annual federal receipts by 2036, roughly 316 percentage points above this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-022: Federal debt held by the public as percent of federal receipts Current Value: 578.6% (2025) Trend: +2.9 PP Metric Evidence:
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NDD-REQ-023 Requirement: Gross federal debt as percent of federal receipts shall decline from 704.6% in 2026 to 408.8% in 2036, computed consistently as NDD-MET-002's target gross debt divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts for each year (not CBO's baseline receipts), so this row stays integrated with the rest of the scenario. Legislative Key Phrases: Feasibility Feasibility: This row is now computed as NDD-MET-002's target gross debt (%GDP) divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts (%GDP) for each year, so it is fully consistent with the rest of this integrated scenario -- previously it divided target debt by CBO's baseline receipts, which quietly broke that consistency (corrected 2026-07-11 after external review). See NDD-MET-001 for the historical/international precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats, NDD-MET-002 for how intragovernmental debt dynamics affect gross-style debt measures specifically, and NDD-MET-009 for the receipts pace this assumes. Discussion: Stretch goal: decline from 704.6% (2026) to 408.8% (2036), computed as NDD-MET-002's target gross debt divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts for each year -- corrected 2026-07-11 after external review found the prior version divided target debt by CBO's baseline receipts instead, breaking consistency with the rest of the scenario. Subject to revision as the full metric set across all issue areas is built out. Benefits If Met: Following NDD-MET-002's smoothed gross-debt glidepath and NDD-MET-009's receipts path together (debt divided by receipts, both already part of this scenario) brings gross debt down to 408.8% of annual receipts by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 767.3% under the current baseline. If Not Met: Left unchecked, gross federal debt grows to more than 7.6 times annual federal receipts by 2036, roughly 358 percentage points above this glidepath's endpoint. |
NDD-MET-023: Gross federal debt as percent of federal receipts Current Value: 713.8% (2025) Trend: -2.3 PP vs 2024 Metric Evidence:
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