|
|
Voice to Congress | |
| Expected Metrics | Values Loaded | Values Pending | Trends Available | Expansion Metrics Ready for Review | Scoring Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 4 / 4 | Disabled |
Trend notation: pp = percentage points. CHAS trend values for HOU-MET-001 through HOU-MET-003 are shown as absolute pp changes between overlapping CHAS releases, not annual single-year trends.
Promotion decision is intentionally separate from display. A metric can appear here and still remain review-only until source, formula, direction-of-improvement, limitation notes, and scoring treatment are approved.
| Metric | Metric Name | Latest Value | Observation Period | Trend / Change | Trend Window | Trend Method / Limitation | Direction of Improvement | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU-MET-001 | Renter Cost Burden Rate | 45.5% | 2018-2022 | +0.46 pp | 2017-2021 → 2018-2022 | CHAS release-to-release change; overlapping ACS 5-year estimates; not a single-year annual trend. Trend is shown as a rounded percentage-point (pp) change in the CHAS rate. | Lower is generally better; fewer renter households are cost-burdened. | CANDIDATE_TREND_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-002 | Severe Renter Cost Burden Rate | 23.1% | 2018-2022 | +0.37 pp | 2017-2021 → 2018-2022 | CHAS release-to-release change; overlapping ACS 5-year estimates; not a single-year annual trend. Trend is shown as a rounded percentage-point (pp) change in the CHAS rate. | Lower is generally better; fewer renter households are severely cost-burdened. | CANDIDATE_TREND_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-003 | Owner Cost Burden Rate | 20.8% | 2018-2022 | +0.10 pp | 2017-2021 → 2018-2022 | CHAS release-to-release change; overlapping ACS 5-year estimates; not a single-year annual trend. Trend is shown as a rounded percentage-point (pp) change in the CHAS rate. | Lower is generally better; fewer owner households are cost-burdened. | CANDIDATE_TREND_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-006 | 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate | 6.36% | May 14, 2026 | -0.40 pp | May 8, 2025 → May 14, 2026 | Absolute rate change from comparable prior period, shown in pp (percentage points), not as a relative percent change. | Lower mortgage rates are generally better for payment affordability. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-007 | Housing Affordability Index | 110.6 index | Apr 2026 | -2.6% | Mar 2026 → Apr 2026 | Percent change from comparable prior-year observation in the local FRED cache. | Higher affordability index is generally better. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| Metric | Metric Name | Latest Value | Observation Period | Trend / Change | Trend Window | Trend Method / Limitation | Direction of Improvement | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU-MET-004 | Median Sales Price of Houses Sold | $403,200 | Q1 2026 | -4.7% | Q1 2025 → Q1 2026 | Percent change from comparable prior-year observation in the local FRED cache. | Lower growth may improve purchase affordability; interpret with supply, income, and mortgage rates. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-005 | Rent CPI / Rent Pressure Index | 445.1 index (1982-1984=100) |
Apr 2026 | +2.8% | Apr 2025 → Apr 2026 | Percent change from comparable prior-year observation in the local FRED cache. | Lower rent inflation is generally better for affordability. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-008 | Rental Vacancy Rate | 7.30% | Q1 2026 | +0.20 pp | Q1 2025 → Q1 2026 | Absolute rate change from comparable prior period, shown in pp (percentage points), not as a relative percent change. | Interpret cautiously; too low can show shortage, too high can show weak demand. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| Metric | Metric Name | Latest Value | Observation Period | Trend / Change | Trend Window | Trend Method / Limitation | Direction of Improvement | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU-MET-009 | Building Permits | 1,363,000 units SAAR |
Mar 2026 | -118,000 units SAAR (-8.0%) | Mar 2025 → Mar 2026 | Latest observation compared with the comparable prior-year observation from the local FRED cache. | Higher permitting can indicate future supply growth; interpret with completions and demand. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-010 | Housing Starts | 1,502,000 units SAAR |
Mar 2026 | +147,000 units SAAR (+10.8%) | Mar 2025 → Mar 2026 | Latest observation compared with the comparable prior-year observation from the local FRED cache. | Higher starts can indicate supply response; interpret with completions and vacancy. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-011 | Housing Completions | 1,366,000 units SAAR |
Mar 2026 | -200,000 units SAAR (-12.8%) | Mar 2025 → Mar 2026 | Latest observation compared with the comparable prior-year observation from the local FRED cache. | Higher completions are generally better for near-term supply. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| Metric | Metric Name | Latest Value | Observation Period | Trend / Change | Trend Window | Trend Method / Limitation | Direction of Improvement | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU-MET-012 legacy candidate ID |
Mortgage Delinquency Rate Research construct: Serious Mortgage Distress Rate |
0.9% latest final 1.1% preliminary |
2024Q4 final 2025Q4 preliminary |
+0.2 pp | 2023Q4 → 2024Q4 final-to-final |
Research construct = FHFA NMDB P90DL + PFORECL. FHFA defines the performance categories as mutually exclusive, so the construct does not double-count the 90+ delinquency and foreclosure/bankruptcy/deed-in-lieu populations. Endpoint remains OPEN under D-025. | Lower is better. Threshold-and-sustain remains the working shape only; no endpoint or horizon is approved. | OPEN DECISION D-032 row-state vocabulary NOT SCORED |
|
HOU-MET-012 Open Decision - evidence and process record, updated 2026-08-29.
Nothing is Locked. No twenty-first Housing requirement row is created by this record.
1. Pre-2020 annual Q4 series - ANSWERED. Serious Mortgage Distress Rate = P90DL + PFORECL: 2002Q4 2.3%; 2003Q4 2.2%; 2004Q4 2.1%; 2005Q4 1.8%; 2006Q4 1.8%; 2007Q4 2.8%; 2008Q4 4.8%; 2009Q4 7.6%; 2010Q4 7.5%; 2011Q4 6.7%; 2012Q4 5.8%; 2013Q4 4.7%; 2014Q4 3.8%; 2015Q4 2.8%; 2016Q4 2.1%; 2017Q4 1.7%; 2018Q4 1.3%; 2019Q4 1.2%. The pre-2020 Q4 series never reached 0.8%, 0.7%, or 0.6%. Later observations at those lower levels remain attainability evidence only; under D-025 they do not by themselves select the endpoint. 2. Additivity - ANSWERED FROM PUBLISHER DEFINITIONS. FHFA's June 26, 2026 NMDB Aggregate Statistics Data Dictionary and Technical Notes states that mortgage performance uses three mutually exclusive categories: 30/60 days past due; 90 or more days past due; and foreclosure/bankruptcy/deed-in-lieu. Appendix D separately defines P90DL and PFORECL over the active-loan denominator. FHFA also describes the 90+ category as loans not already in a foreclosure, bankruptcy, or deed-in-lieu process. Therefore P90DL + PFORECL does not double-count those two numerator populations. Source: FHFA NMDB Aggregate Statistics Data Dictionary and Technical Notes, June 26, 2026. 3. Endpoint - OPEN under D-025. 0.6%, 0.7%, and 0.8% are retained as attainability evidence only. No construct-matched federal national endpoint was found in the documented 2026-08-29 search of FHFA, CFPB, HUD, Federal Register, and GAO sources. The endpoint can close positively only if an authoritative construct-compatible benchmark is found, an independent substantive policy basis satisfying D-025 is approved, or a revised construct with an independent endpoint basis is adopted and fully revalidated. If those avenues are exhausted without a defensible endpoint, the Open Decision must be explicitly adjudicated; the metric remains internal research evidence and is not promoted as a public accountability metric. 4. Baseline, vintage, and revision handling - PENDING GENERAL METHODOLOGY DECISION. No adoption baseline exists for this Open Decision. 2024Q4 = 0.9% is the latest final Q4 reading in the June 26, 2026 FHFA release; it is not an adopted baseline. 2025Q4 = 1.1% is preliminary. The cross-issue methodology draft must separate a fixed adoption baseline from the latest authoritative value; preserve a score snapshot including the source vintage; define executable source-specific preliminary/finality rules; and require explicit restatement review when a later revision of a previously final value would materially change a threshold, grade, or status. The general rule is unnumbered and not yet approved. For FHFA, the CSV has no PRELIMINARY field; status is derived from FHFA's published rule that the latest two quarters of mortgage-performance statistics are preliminary. In a release ending 2026Q1, 2026Q1 and 2025Q4 are therefore preliminary. 5. Interim scoring - OPEN CROSS-ISSUE METHODOLOGY. D-029 prohibits interpolated annual target rows for threshold-and-sustain metrics. Until a cross-issue scoring rule is approved, this construct reports direction-of-travel only from final annual Q4 readings: IMPROVING, NO CHANGE, or WORSENING. No scoring-point conversion is assigned here and no invented glidepath is used. 6. Preserved evidence. Validated extraction snapshot: fhfa_nmdb_serious_mortgage_distress_2026-06-26.csv.
Research/provenance record:
HOU_MET_012_open_evidence_2026-08-29.md.
Extractor:
scripts\fhfa_nmdb_mortgage_distress_baseline.py V3.
Inventory / vocabulary. D-032 controls the row-state vocabulary: Draft, Open Decision, Locked. "Requirement Candidate" is not used. This research disposition remains Open Decision. Adding a twenty-first Housing requirement is a separate inventory decision and is not implied by approving the construct, endpoint, horizon, or methodology. |
||||||||
| HOU-MET-013 | Point-in-Time Homelessness Count | 771,480 people | January 2024 PIT | +118,376 people (+18.1%) | January 2023 PIT → January 2024 PIT | Year-over-year national PIT count comparison. PIT is a one-night January count and may undercount people not visible or not reached during the count. | Lower homelessness is better. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-014 | Unsheltered Homelessness Count | 274,224 people | January 2024 PIT | +17,614 people (+6.9%) | January 2023 PIT → January 2024 PIT | Year-over-year national PIT unsheltered count comparison. Prior value is derived from HUD's reported 2024 unsheltered count and 2023-2024 change (+17,614 / +6.9%). Unsheltered PIT counts can vary by local count capacity and may undercount actual unsheltered homelessness. | Lower unsheltered homelessness is better. | CANDIDATE_VALUE_AVAILABLE_NOT_SCORED |
| Metric | Metric Name | Latest Value | Observation Period | Trend / Change | Trend Window | Trend Method / Limitation | Direction of Improvement | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU-MET-150 | Annual Renter Cost Burden Trend | 51.8% | 2024 ACS 1-year | +0.0 pp (+0.0%) | 2023 ACS 1-year → 2024 ACS 1-year | Annual ACS 1-year national estimate; rate change shown in pp, with relative percent change in parentheses. Margin-of-error treatment remains a review gate. | Lower annual renter cost burden is better; expansion metric pending promotion review. | EXPANSION_CANDIDATE_REVIEW_ONLY_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-160 | Annual Owner Cost Burden Trend | 23.6% | 2024 ACS 1-year | +0.2 pp (+1.0%) | 2023 ACS 1-year → 2024 ACS 1-year | Annual ACS 1-year national estimate; rate change shown in pp, with relative percent change in parentheses. Margin-of-error treatment remains a review gate. | Lower annual owner cost burden is better; expansion metric pending promotion review. | EXPANSION_CANDIDATE_REVIEW_ONLY_NOT_SCORED |
| HOU-MET-170 | Rental Assistance Coverage Gap | 8.46M unassisted VLI renter households with worst case needs | 2023 AHS / HUD 2025 WCHN report | -0.07M households (-0.8%) | 2021 AHS → 2023 AHS | HUD Worst Case Housing Needs report comparison: 8.53M households in 2021 to 8.46M households in 2023. | Lower unmet rental-assistance need is better; expansion metric pending promotion review. | EXPANSION_CANDIDATE_REVIEW_ONLY |
| HOU-MET-180 | Eviction / Housing-Loss Risk Context | 7.9% filing rate; 1.23M eviction filings in tracked sites | 2025 Eviction Tracking System sites | -0.02M filings (-1.6%); 2025 was -3.2% below post-pandemic average | 2024 → 2025; compared with 2023–2024 average | Eviction Lab ETS comparison: 1.25M filings in 2024 to 1.23M filings in 2025, plus comparison to post-pandemic average. | Lower eviction filing pressure is better; expansion metric pending promotion review. | EXPANSION_CANDIDATE_REVIEW_ONLY |
index.ASPX.